Have UK political manifestos successfully predicted the next big thing? Our research looks at main party manifestos since 1945 to see how well they incorporated new trends.

Key findings

• This shows that political manifestos are relatively good at early identification of future trends, such as the rise of automation and the creation of the internet.
• However, they rarely set out clear policies for taking advantage of new trends, or for mitigating their risks.
• They are also poor at predicting the ‘shocks’ that such trends can cause.

As the 2015 General Election approaches, Nesta has commissioned research looking at how well political manifestos have identified and taken account of long-term trends that, with hindsight, transformed society during the coming decades.

This report identifies seven key areas in which the manifestos of the UK’s three main parties have either anticipated or failed to anticipate emerging trends.

• Automation
• Poverty and the Welfare State
• Demographics
• European Integration
• Deindustrialisation
• Climate Change
• The Internet