A deterioration in pupil mental health and a cultural shift in attitudes towards attending school, both fuelled by habits developed during the pandemic, are often cited as causes of the recent surge in absence. It is also claimed that reductions in school resources and new parental working patterns have created the conditions that have allowed attendance to deteriorate.
Are certain types of absence behind the increase?
In general, two attendance categories stand out as being responsible for the sharp increase in absence that occurred in 2021-2022: ‘authorised illness’ and ‘unauthorised other’. The illness rate (not including Covid-19) rose very sharply that year and was responsible for almost 60% of the increase in overall absence in secondary schools and for 77% of the increase in primary. This rise comes off the back of 12 years in which absence due to illness had been in steady decline. A fifth of the rise in overall absence in primary schools and over a quarter of the rise in secondary schools was due to ‘unauthorised other’ – a classification covering anything that is not an unauthorised holiday or authorised lateness and typically used when parents do not provide a reason for an absence.
Are cultural shifts behind the rise in absence?
There has been no substantial survey to date into the views of pupils and parents on schooling, pre- and post-pandemic, and how these views are affecting attendance. Limited research from the University of Exeter suggests a shift in parental views on the role of schools in educating their children started emerging during the pandemic, with more parents now positioning themselves as having a more important role in educating their children. An investigation by Ofsted also found that many parents now believe remote learning is a suitable substitute for attendance, even in situations not related to Covid-19. Parental perceptions of the risk of illness and increased anxiety feature predominantly as reasons for not sending their children to school after the pandemic.
The rise in Friday absences, recently highlighted to the Education Committee during its inquiry into school attendance, has been described as a symptom of a growing number of parents working from home and allowing their children to remain at home. By analysing data from Arbor, we have been able to make a comparison of pre- and post-pandemic daily attendance patterns, something that is not possible using DfE data alone. In 2021-2022, Friday absence in secondary schools was higher than any other day of the week. In primary schools the pattern is slightly different, with low absence rates at the start and end of the week. But Monday and Friday absence is not a uniquely post-pandemic phenomenon. Friday absence rates (relative to the weekly average) have been increasing each year in secondary schools since 2015-2016.
Daily attendance rate relative to weekly average
The conditions for higher Friday absences are arguably more present now than before the pandemic. Office usage surveys and London transport data indicate that many more people are choosing to work from home on Mondays and Fridays. At the same time, DfE attendance data reveals that the biggest drivers of the increased Monday and Friday absence was ‘authorised illness’ and ‘unauthorised other’. These categories lend weight to suggestions that an increasing number of parents are allowing their children to stay home on a Friday – either providing no reason for the absence or claiming their child is unwell. However, data that is publicly available at the local authority level does not support the argument that home working parents are driving Friday absence rates. Local authorities with a higher percentage of people that never work from home have higher levels of overall absence. Although the correlation is relatively weak, this is the opposite relationship to what we would expect if parental working patterns were driving absences.
Despite the coverage that Friday absences have received, the impact on overall attendance levels is low. If we artificially return Friday absence rates in 2022-2023 to their pre-pandemic levels, then the improvement on overall attendance rates is about a tenth of a percent (from 90.36% to 90.43%). If we go further and make Friday absence rates the same as they typically are on a Thursday, then the attendance rate rises again, but only to 90.65%. The consideration of Friday absences is valid, given the stark differences across the week and the potential impact on learning, but the overall impact of Friday absence is limited and the connection to parental attitudes is currently hard to prove. More pupil-level data on Friday absence and a large parental survey would help create a clearer picture.
