Mental health is frequently cited by school leaders and charities as a driver of low attendance. There is a large body of evidence showing that pupils with diagnosed mental disorders are more likely to be absent from school and the pandemic undoubtedly affected many young people’s mental health, while making it more difficult for them to access support services. Making a definitive link between specific mental health conditions and their impact on attendance is challenging. The ECHILD dataset, linking health, education and social care, is released this year and will become a powerful tool for understanding the connection between mental health, attendance and attainment. There is some evidence currently within available DfE data that pupils with SEN relating to their mental health are experiencing higher levels of absence than their peers. Pupils with a diagnosis of Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH) had the highest rates of overall, persistent and severe absence in the years leading up to pandemic. They have also experienced some of the highest rises in absence rates post-pandemic, particularly when it comes to severe absence.

We also know that pupils are reporting feeling less safe in school and that this will undoubtedly be impacting attendance. One in 10 pupils report missing school over a period of six months before being surveyed, as a result of feeling unsafe in school. Female pupils are disproportionately affected, with elevated psychological distress, self-harm and suicide attempts at a much higher rate than their male peers. Research from UCL shows that girls’ mental health was disproportionately impacted by the pandemic, and that they are likely to have taken on additional caring responsibilities. It is not surprising then to see within the data that female pupils have experienced a greater rise in overall, persistent and severe absence since the pandemic.

The impact of attendance on GCSE attainment is profound. 84% of pupils with perfect attendance during key stage 4 achieved a ‘standard’ pass (grade 9 to 4) in English and Maths in 2018-2019. This falls to less than 50% for pupils with an overall absence of 10% (persistently absent, equivalent to missing one day of school every fortnight). This is significant when we consider that the average overall absence rate has risen from 4.7% in 2018-2019 to 7.5% in 2021-2022, that an additional 430,000 pupils are now persistently absent and around 44,000 more are severely absent.

The effect of attendance on GCSE attainment is difficult to establish from exam data, as grade boundaries are adjusted each year based on a number of parameters. While the percentage of pupils achieving at different grades will remain roughly constant due to these shifting boundaries, the approximately half a million additional pupils that are now persistently or severely absent will be much further down the curve and are therefore far less likely to obtain GCSE passes in English and Maths.

Had the grade boundaries between 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 not been adjusted, we estimate that the proportion of pupils obtaining a ‘standard’ pass (grades 9 to 4) in English and Maths would have fallen from 68% to 60% and the proportion obtained a ‘good’ pass (grades 9 to 5) would have fallen from 46% to 38%.