The change in absence between 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 varied across the nine regions of England. Regions in the South East fare much better on average than other regions, while the regions in the North, West and North East of England experienced the largest increases in absence over this period.

Examining trends at a smaller scale, we see that some local authorities have experienced much greater increases in overall, persistent and severe absence than others. Tower Hamlets experienced a rise in overall absence between 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 of just 1.7%, while Torbay’s increase was over 4%.

Torbay, Plymouth, St Helens and Bradford top the list of local authorities with the greatest increase in overall, persistent and severe absence, while Tower Hamlets, Lewisham, and Hammersmith and Fulham are in the lowest 10 in all these categories. Almost all the 27 schools identified earlier as bucking the trend of increased absences are in urban areas, with nearly half (13 out of 27) based within the M25, and seven within London Boroughs. We know that schools in urban areas tend to be better resourced than those in rural areas and struggle less with recruitment.

Deprivation within a local area has an impact on attendance. The figure above shows how overall and persistence absence within a local authority increases, albeit marginally, with greater proportions eligible for FSM. It also provides clues about the indiscriminate nature of the recent rises in absence. While the relationship between FSM and absence remains after the pandemic, the correlation is now weaker, with points scattered more widely from the trendline. This suggests that local deprivation (as measured by FSM) is not a key driver of the post-pandemic spike in absences.