Previous Nesta reporting has shown  that one in ten households – 3 million in total – need to install a heat pump during the life of this Parliament to meet the UK's climate obligations. This is a twelve-fold increase from the previous Parliament, where the UK installed an estimated 250,000 heat pumps between 2020 and 2024.

Of the 25.5 million UK homes that still use oil or gas boilers – who will be the next heat pump adopters? By understanding who is likely to be next in line to install heat pumps, we can improve services and advice so they are more specific and accessible, encouraging these households to take action towards low-carbon heating. 

Previous research by Which? has already helped us to understand how people differ when it comes to heat pump adoption. They suggest that UK homeowners could be grouped into one of six categories when it comes to knowledge and willingness to install a heat pump. This project aims to provide more clarity by creating geodemographic segments of heat pump adopters – those of today, tomorrow and in five years time. By breaking this audience into segments with shared characteristics, we can better understand what would help them take the next step on their journey towards heat pump adoption. 

Note: Homeowners who have heard of heat pumps and know what they are were asked if they would consider installing a heat pump if their current heat system needed replacing in the next 12 months.

Having a more accurate idea of who the potential heat pump adopters in the UK are, including where they are located and what their needs are, will enable us to better develop and target interventions to increase heat pump adoption. For example, new projects that tailor interventions to specific segments, and social media advertising for existing services like the Get A Heat Pump website and Visit a Heat Pump service.

Creating heat pump-specific segments could enable us to more effectively provide the information people need on their heat pump journey. Experian will develop pen portraits of each segment (which can be shared with the wider sector), providing information to media agencies to more accurately target potential heat pump adopters through online marketing channels, such as Google ads and Facebook, and through offline channels, such as door drops. Ultimately, if we can speed up the rate of heat pump uptake we can move faster to scaling low-carbon heating across the country.

We are commissioning data analytics company Experian to produce this detailed audience segmentation through representative quantitative research with YouGov (involving a sample of 4,000 people). Our aim is to derive demographic segments underpinned by a combination of research data, including the MCS database of existing heat pump adopters (70,000 installations) and demographics and geographical data from Experian.

This process should enable us to have a better understanding of some of the factors that might contribute to a household adopting a heat pump in the future. For instance, we know that people who use an oil boiler are likely to install a heat pump so that they can save money on running costs. There may be other commonalities that become clearer through the segments, providing a more accurate understanding of who might be next to install a heat pump.