Labour is at 39%, up from 32% in 2019 and the Conservatives are at 32%, down from 44% in 2019. This is the equivalent of a 10% swing in these seats from the Conservatives to Labour. Among voters under 50 Labour is on 49%, 28 points ahead of the Conservatives.

The research was carried out by Opinium among 4,000 voters living in key marginal constituencies. At the next general election, Labour would need to win in an additional 124 parliamentary constituencies to achieve an overall majority. We polled the 124 constituencies that Labour came closest to winning (i.e. where they were in second place) in the 2019 general election. We also polled the 100 constituencies most narrowly won by the Conservatives in 2019. There is a significant degree of overlap between these two groups of constituencies so the total number polled in our data is 144. These are the people and places most likely to decide which party wins the next election

The research is published today by UK 2040 Options, a new policy project led by Nesta and the Behavioural Insights Team. The project will address the defining issues facing the country, from tax and economic growth to health and education. The project will convene a range of experts to assess the policy landscape and to test and interrogate policy solutions. The project team will work with other leading organisations such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies on tax and the Health Foundation on health.

The research finds that the economy and the NHS are the overwhelming priorities for voters in marginal constituencies. Nearly a third (31%) of voters think inflation and cost of living is the most urgent issue followed by NHS staffing and funding at 20%. One in ten (10%) voters selected immigration as the most important issue to tackle, rising to 19% among over 65s and falling to 5% among under 35s.

As well as seeking to understand the issues people care about today, UK 2040 Options is focused on long term policy challenges facing the UK including economic growth, public finances and taxation, net zero and technology.

Voters were asked about the most important issues to resolve by 2040, the point at which a child born today will turn 18. People chose NHS staffing and funding as the most important long term priority (15%), followed by reducing carbon emissions to tackle climate change (14%) and reducing inflation and the cost of living (14%).

Policy problems that become much more important when the public thinks about them long-term include reducing carbon emissions (14% vs 7% now), creating a higher growth economy (9% vs 6% now) and making housing affordable (8% vs 3% now).

Respondents express little confidence in the ability of politicians to solve the issues they care about. Thinking about the next five years 57% expressed low or no confidence in the ability of any party to take action. Meanwhile people are divided about the extent to which they feel represented by any of the main political parties with 40% saying they don’t feel represented and 37% saying they do.

On tax there is little appetite in marginal seats for cutting taxes with just 12% expressing a preference for cutting taxes and spending less on public services. Meanwhile 38% want to keep tax and spending as they are while 36% want to raise taxes and spend more on public services. People are generally not in the mood for radical ideas with 72% expressing a preference for a fully funded step by step plan compared with just 18% who want to see radical new ideas to achieve positive social change.

Ravi Gurumurthy, CEO of Nesta said: “The public is often represented as being polarised and divided. But there’s a lot of agreement among voters about the issues we need to solve right now and for the country’s future. The public primarily wants the government and politicians to focus on the economy and health services. We’ve had quite a few handbrake turns on policy. Regardless of who forms the next government the UK is in desperate need of an extended period of stable policy making. This means levelling with voters about trade offs and building consensus on big policy questions to give people a sense of hope. People deserve grown up debates about the decisions that will affect their lives now and in the coming decades.”

In the coming months UK 2040 Options will support policymakers as they make choices about what to prioritise and how to deliver. The project will set out alternative policy options and pathways for the future, creating space for honest debate about the trade-offs and testing and interrogating ideas that take us beyond immediate crises.

Former Cabinet Secretary Gus O’Donnell is the project sponsor for UK 2040 Options. He said: “The country is at a crossroads. We need to start with a clear eyed assessment of both the most urgent and the most important problems facing the country. There is an appetite for realistic policymaking to address the fundamentals and politicians looking to form the next government will need to be thinking now about how they will govern, not just how they plan to campaign.”

Alexandra Burns, Director of the UK 2040 Options project said: “A child born today will become an adult in the early 2040s. Voters who will decide the next election care not only about the immediate challenges the country faces, but are thinking about the kind of future we need for the next generation. While issues like climate and housing don’t always feature as immediate priorities, the public desire for longer term plans is clear when you ask them. This demands a considered response from all parties.”

She added, “The UK 2040 Options project will help by creating the space for honest debate, describing the alternative pathways for the future and testing and interrogating ideas for the long-term.”

Contact

Mark Byrne

Head of Media

Nesta / UK 2040 Options

07745 234 909 / [email protected]

Fieldwork

The fieldwork was carried out by Opinium from 19 to 31 May 2023. The poll was conducted in 144 marginal constituencies in the UK with 4,065 GB adults. The constituencies that met this criteria were either those comprising the Conservative Party's current majority or those that the Labour Party would need to win in order to achieve an overall majority.

About UK 2040 Options

Children born today will reach adulthood around 2040. What will life in the UK be like for them, according to current trajectories? What are the policy options we have now that can influence or change that trajectory for the better?

UK 2040 Options addresses the defining issues facing the country, from tax and economic growth to health and education.

A range of experts will assess the policy landscape, explore some of the most fertile areas in more depth, test and interrogate ideas and bring fresh angles and insights to the choices that policymakers will need to confront, make and implement.

Collaborators:

• Working with the Institute for Fiscal Studies, we will explore the challenges that are created by or could be alleviated using the tax system, the options for reform and the potential implications for public finances.
• Working with the Health Foundation, we will explore the challenges facing the health and care system, options for reform and the priorities for the next government.