This event had Nicole Kobie, author of ‘The Long History of the Future’, discussing technological progress and innovation with Will Woodward from Nesta’s Discovery Hub. Kobie's book examines the history of various technologies like AI and flying cars, noting that their development often takes longer than expected.

During the event, Kobie highlighted DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, as an example of alternative approaches to AI development that prioritised efficiency and environmental impact. DeepSeek's model achieved high performance with lower computational costs, contrasting with the ‘bigger is better’ approach of Western AI developers. Kobie suggested that Western companies may have been too focused on performance gains, ignoring internal criticism and alternative design ideas. She posed the question of why Western companies did not pursue similar efficiency measures and considered whether export restrictions on advanced chips in China inadvertently spurred innovation.

The conversation then touched on the lack of diversity in the tech industry, particularly in Silicon Valley, and how it may hinder innovation. Kobie referenced a Google ethics researcher who faced resistance when advocating for more efficient and sustainable AI designs. She argued that diverse perspectives and a willingness to listen to criticism are crucial for solving the complex problems associated with AI.

Regarding AI development, Kobie suggested that AI was experiencing a period of overhyped investment. While AI technologies have demonstrated utility, especially in areas like software engineering, Kobie cautioned against the boom-and-bust cycles of AI summers and winters. She advocated for a more balanced approach to funding, investing in a range of technologies and addressing the infrastructure and data requirements necessary for AI to succeed. Kobie stressed the importance of government, public institutions and universities in fostering innovation, noting that much of the foundational work in AI originated in universities with public funding. She stated that technology companies should acknowledge and support these institutions.

It was noted that innovation often occurs in unexpected ways, with failures and long-term efforts contributing to future breakthroughs. Kobie used the example of flying cars, noting that although the first certified flying car appeared in 1956, the technology has not yet fulfilled its initial promise. Kobie explained that the idea of a flying car that can take off from anywhere is not feasible and that current development is focused on electric aviation for small aircrafts which could contribute to climate change goals and link up countries. Kobie also argued that the tech industry's focus on futuristic visions can distract from current needs and challenges. Kobie believed that if the hyping of technology was curtailed, there would be more effective funding.

Kobie addressed concerns about the potential consequences of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). She highlighted the need to discuss who will control AGI systems and how to manage their impact on society, particularly regarding employment and power structures. Kobie emphasised the importance of open-source systems and infrastructure to ensure broader access and control.

The event closed by Kobie highlighting the need for innovation in socioeconomic systems to address the potential impacts of AI and automation on employment and society. She raised questions about alternative economic models, taxation, and governance structures to adapt to a future where human labour is less essential and called for leadership that understands these issues and can innovate new systems for organising society.