With the support of J.P. Morgan, Nesta is excited to embark on a new piece of research that will map ‘career causeways’ for people whose jobs are likely to change or be lost as a result of automation. Building on our Open Jobs programme of work, this ambitious project will apply state-of-the-art data science methods to measure the susceptibility of jobs to automation. Focusing on the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, we will shed new light on the demographic characteristics and locations of workers likely to experience changes to their jobs.

Importantly, where occupations are at risk, this work will identify lower risk occupations which have similar skill requirements and offer a comparable standard of living, and are therefore viable alternative roles. We hope that this information can be used to provide guidance to workers who are likely to be displaced from their jobs.

For some workers, changing to lower risk occupations might be harder because their skills are more specialised or less transferable. We expect the research will identify groups of workers whose career transitions are limited due to ‘skill isolation’, and who might therefore need different types of support.

This research will fill gaps in the existing research on occupations that are at risk of automation. The available literature is predominantly focused on US occupations and the estimates that are available for EU countries tend to be for broad occupation groups. For example, a recent study for OECD countries only gives estimates for 43 occupation groups. In this research we will use the ESCO framework (a multilingual classification of European Skills, Competencies, Qualifications and Occupations) to evaluate the susceptibility to automation for 2,942 occupations.

More importantly, the current research does not provide comprehensive pathways for transitions out of at-risk occupations. Instead, the transition routes are either based on a small set of skills, or they are based on proprietary skill frameworks. To address this gap, we will map transition opportunities between all occupations in ESCO, which also contains the largest publicly available set of skill requirements.

The research is intended to provide insights that policymakers and practitioners can use to develop solutions which support workers whose jobs are at risk, and increase their resilience to change. To achieve this, we’ll be working with key stakeholders (for example, learning providers, public employment services, unions and policymakers) to guide our research and interpret the results.

Alongside a report detailing key transition pathways for workers, the outputs will include a job recommendation algorithm which suggests alternative occupations for workers in at-risk occupations, and a series of short, engaging documents which translate our findings into practical guidance and recommendations.

This work furthers Nesta’s mission, detailed in Precarious to Prepared, to empower workers to navigate their way to the jobs of the future by making information and guidance available to more people.

If you are a policymaker or practitioner based in the UK, France, Germany, or Italy, and would like to learn more or contribute your expertise to this project, please email [email protected].